Phytoplasma Risk Index (FKI)

flavescence dorée (FD)

The FKI is a danger indicator: it expresses both the risk and the damage already done. The lower it is, the safer.

Hungary · 2026 preliminary · expert estimate
Last substantive update: October 2026

Danger indicatorthe lower the value, the better and safer

34%
Spread: 73%
Unknown foci: 99%
Vine loss

Epidemic burden: 34 points

The FKI starts from the geometric mean of the three factors; the epidemic burden and the risk of return raise it

What goes into it?

Spread

34%

How freely the phytoplasma can spread: through the American grapevine leafhopper or infected propagating material.

How we scored each sub-indicator: 2026 preliminary

What influences it?

Source of infection: the surroundings of confirmed points, foci not yet found, infection density and infection arriving from neighbouring countries.
Leafhopper: where the American grapevine leafhopper lives and how dense it is – measured at untreated sites or before treatment.
Control in vineyards: where the mandatory treatment was not carried out, how good the timing and the choice of products are, and whether notifications reach growers in time.
Refuges: abandoned vineyards, feral rootstock and home-garden vines, where the leafhopper often goes untreated.
Grubbing up: removing infected vines by the deadline. Only a known focus can be grubbed up, so better detection also reduces spread.
Propagating material: how well certified propagation, home propagation and the exchange of cuttings and canes are controlled.

Full methodology, formulas and weights

100%: the infection is present everywhere, the leafhopper spreads it unhindered, and no control measures are taken against it
0%: there is no source of infection or no leafhopper, and no unchecked propagating material is brought in

Last substantive update: October 2026

COVID parallel: like a mask – it does not cure, but it slows the spread of infection.

Unknown foci

73%

How large the risk of a hidden focus is: the infection is present or may be introduced, and stays hidden.

Why so high? The state of detection How we scored each sub-indicator: 2026 preliminary

What influences it?

Presence: how much vineyard area has a confirmed infected zone, and how many hidden foci there may be outside the zones, where the area has not been checked.
Area covered: what share of commercial vineyards, home gardens and abandoned vineyards was surveyed in the symptom season (survey teams, official surveys, drones, FD Finder).
Recognition: surveyors’ training, a uniform protocol and automated pre-screening.
Notification by growers: whether growers recognise the symptoms, how easy it is to notify, and whether notifying is worth it.
Lab confirmation: whether a suspicious vine gets a PCR result in time.

Full methodology, formulas and weights

100%: the infection is present everywhere and nobody is looking for it
0%: no infection and no introduction pressure, or every focus is found

Last substantive update: October 2026

COVID parallel: like testing and contact tracing – whoever has been found no longer passes the infection on unnoticed.

Vine loss

99%

What share of the infected vines that have become known is lost: they die or are grubbed up. It depends on mandatory grubbing up, cures, resistant varieties and community resources.

How we scored each sub-indicator: 2026 preliminary

What influences it?

Mandatory grubbing up: as long as it is mandatory, an infected vine that has become known is lost, so the factor cannot be below 90%.
Cure: whether there is an authorised treatment that is also effective in the vineyard.
Resistant varieties: how large an area is planted with truly resistant varieties (not merely ones that show no symptoms).
Community resources: whether there is a dedicated budget for research and community treatment (variety change, replanting).
Recovery and condition: spontaneous recovery counts only where grubbing up is not mandatory; drought reduces its chances.

Full methodology, formulas and weights

100%: every infected vine is lost
0%: no infected vine is lost

Last substantive update: October 2026

COVID parallel: like vaccination and medicine – infection can still happen, but it is fatal less often.

The FKI by country

Expert estimate, 2026 preliminary. For the other countries the experts also estimate the machine-calculated terms, so differences between countries are less certain than a change over time in one country. Click or tap a country: its dashboard appears beside the map and its time series below it.

0%100%no estimate

Hungary

Spread (T): 34%
Unknown foci (G): 73%
Vine loss (V): 99%
Epidemic burden (J): 34 points

Without epidemic burden: 66% · First confirmed FD: 2013

Detailed evaluation

Hungary, 1949–2026

The FKI and the factors by year. Hover over a year, tap it or use the arrow keys: that year’s dashboard appears beside it, and for Hungary also the main FD events.

Vine loss (V)
Unknown foci (G)
Spread (T)
FKI
Estimate range

Expert estimate reconstructed afterwards, not a measurement. The time series shows each year’s closing value; the 2026 value is still preliminary. Before 1990 only the series for France and Italy are estimates; the other countries repeat their 1990 value from 1949 to 1989. From the year FD appeared, the 20% lower limit also applies, hence the step there. In Hungary the formula without mandatory grubbing up applies until 2013. The 2025 jump is partly the effect of the large-scale survey.

2026 preliminary

Spread (T): 34%
Unknown foci (G): 73%
Vine loss (V): 99%
Epidemic burden (J): 34 points

Main FD events

Also confirmed in the Bükk wine region, so all 22 wine regions are affected; 681 confirmed FD points on the map (31 Oct).
From 27 July, leafhopper control is mandatory for all vineyards; full grubbing up from 20%; repeated compensation.
The FD Act (T/570.) is promulgated: ‘other vines’, procedure by the hegybíró (vineyard warden); in force from 24 October.

The values in a table

Country	FKI	Estimate range	T	G	V	J
Serbia	80%	70%–85%	49%	85%	99%	60
Slovenia	71%	64%–76%	34%	71%	99%	90
Hungary	68%	63%–74%	34%	73%	99%	34
France	57%	51%–64%	21%	73%	99%	0
Croatia	56%	50%–65%	23%	43%	99%	56
Slovakia	48%	44%–57%	15%	25%	99%	75
Italy	46%	42%–54%	11%	45%	99%	36
Switzerland	38%	35%–46%	12%	29%	99%	3
Portugal	35%	33%–48%	8%	34%	99%	3
Austria	34%	32%–43%	10%	21%	99%	0
Romania	25%	25%–36%	10%	7%	99%	0
Moldova	22%	22%–32%	6%	5%	99%	0
Czechia	21%	20%–30%	5%	5%	99%	0
Bulgaria	21%	20%–31%	5%	5%	99%	3
Spain	20%	20%–27%	3%	5%	99%	0
Germany	20%	20%–25%	2%	4%	99%	0
Montenegro	20%	20%–26%	4%	4%	99%	0
Bosnia & Herzegovina	18%	17%–32%	9%	6%	99%	0
Ukraine	17%	15%–30%	7%	7%	90%	0
North Macedonia	12%	11%–24%	4%	4%	100%	0
Greece	11%	9%–22%	3%	4%	100%	0

Why is the FKI of large countries lower?

The FKI is a national indicator: it measures the infected area and the removed vines against the country's whole vineyard area. In a large country (France about 750,000 hectares, Italy about 700,000) a severe but regional epidemic is therefore a small share, while in a small country (Slovenia about 14,000 hectares, Serbia about 18,000) an epidemic of the same size affects much of the vineyard area. That is why the national values of France and Italy did not reach today's Serbian, Slovenian or Hungarian level even during their major epidemics. Calculated for a single wine region or county, the FKI of a heavily infected one can even go above 70%: by our first estimate this was the case for Aude (France) in 1988, Asti and Alessandria (Italy) in 2005 and Zala County (Hungary) in 2025. The wine-region FKI is still being developed; these values are not yet final.

The first estimate for 24 European wine regions and for every wine-region group of all 21 FKI countries, 1945–2026, is published in separate articles with charts you can toggle by wine region. You can read them once you register for free and enter your wine region. Wine-region FKI, 1945–2026 → · Hungarian wine regions, 2006–2026 →

What is your FKI estimate?Go through the sub-indicators, set them within a band matched to the strength of the evidence, and see what you think the FKI is.Make your own estimate

Calculation: base value = ∛(spread × unknown foci × vine loss); the epidemic burden raises this by at most a fifth of the remaining distance. Where FD has ever been confirmed, the risk of return also counts, and the value is at least 20%. Expert estimate, not official data. Methodology: FKI measurement rules, version 5.2. Methodology in detail · FD Finder Expert's knowledge base · Every score from every scorer: 2026 preliminary